Interest Rates and the Economy

The Pivot To Fiscal?

The final Mario Draghi press conference had him underlining the importance of fiscal policy. Since I am supposed to be working on my slides for my presentation in the panel "MMT: Who is Listening?", one might argue that it looks like a lot of people. However, it is unclear how significant the shift ...

Quant Quake 2.0 and QE Infinity Unnerving Investors?

Robbin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times reports how the drop in hot stocks stirs memories of ‘quant quake’:The stock market may appear tranquil again after a rollercoaster summer, but many analysts and investors are unnerved by violent moves beneath the surface, reviving memories of the 20 ...

The DB Pension Plan Model Has Failed?

Brent Simmons, Senior Managing Director & Head, Defined Benefit Solutions at Sun Life, wrote an op-ed for the Globe & Mail on why the DB pension plan business model has failed – and everyone is paying the price:For the past 20 years, many private-sector companies across Canada followed the same r ...

Market Update. Investors eye rate cuts, but markets remain lukewarm as US-China trade dispute continues

Global equity markets have rallied off their mid-August lows that were driven by US-China trade tensions.  Sentiment looks to be improving as investors speculate that the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in September to address the prospect of slowing global ...

Is a U.S. recession inevitable?

The yield curve has been a constant topic of conversation among investors since mid-August, when the 2-year/10-year Treasury curve briefly inverted and launched furious speculation that a recession may be around the corner.  The same holds true among Invesco’s market strategists, who have been d ...

Sustained Unsustainable Trends: Canadian Edition

I have not been commenting on Canadian data recently, but I just wanted to update the above chart of the debt-to-disposable income ratio. (It caught my eye as I was inserting the chart into my manuscript.) It was very easy to declare the rise in the debt-to-income ratio "unsustainable," yet it has ...

The Next Big Short?

Bloomberg's Reed Stevenson reports The Big Short’s Michael Burry explains why index funds are like subprime CDOs:For an investor whose story was featured in a best-selling book and an Oscar-winning movie, Michael Burry has kept a surprisingly low profile in recent years.But it turns out the hero ...

Will The Real Bubble Please Stand Up?

Bloomberg's Reed Stevenson reports The Big Short’s Michael Burry explains why index funds are like subprime CDOs:For an investor whose story was featured in a best-selling book and an Oscar-winning movie, Michael Burry has kept a surprisingly low profile in recent years.But it turns out the hero ...

Employment Bounces Back

Ottawa, September 6, 2019— “This morning’s Labour Force Survey data shows that the domestic economy continues to do well and validates the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates steady earlier this week.” Alicia Macdonald, The Conference Board of Canada’s Principal Economist, ...

Investments Plain and Simple

How Investments Are Taxed When making investment decisions, it is wise to consider the various tax implications – both positive and negative. As always, first remember that your investments should reflect your goals and values, your time frame and your risk tolerance. It’s vitally important to ...