Global Economics

Climate Change Will Bring More Frequent Natural Disasters & Weigh on Economic Growth

by Sebastian Acevedo, and Natalija Novta November 16, 2017 As natural disasters become more frequent and intense, countries should invest in resilient infrastructure to better withstand such hazards (photo: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Newscom). The weather seems to be getting wilder and fierc ...

Macro Briefing: 16 November 2017

Johnson is the first GOP senator to oppose tax-reform bill: PoliticoUS retail sales rose a moderate 4.6% for y-o-y change through Oct: USA TodayUS core inflation up 1.8% y-o-y in Oct–first acceleration since Jan: BloombergNY Fed Mfg Index falls but still pointing to healthy growth: RTTYear-ahead ...

OPEC Raises its Oil Demand Forecast in 2018

OPEC raised its forecast on Monday for demand for its oil in 2018 and said its deal with other producers to cut output was reducing excess oil in storage, potentially pushing the global market into a deficit next year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also said in a monthly rep ...

Catch-Up Prospects in Emerging Economies: A Glass One Quarter Empty

By IMFBlog November 6, 2017 A closer look at per capita incomes by country paints a different and more nuanced picture (Pavel1964/iStock photos). Per capita incomes in emerging market and developing economies are expected to grow by about 2 percentage points faster per year than advanced ...

Global Economic Outlook: Benign With Some Macro Risks

Joachim Fels, global economic advisor, and Olivia Albrecht, fixed income strategist, discuss the underpinning of PIMCO’s near-term global macroeconomic outlook. For more of our views on opportunities and risks at this stage of the expansion, see our recent Cyclical Outlook. Read Now ...

It’s not the time to buy an emerging market debt index! It’s alpha’s turn now

Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a 50 basis points increase in the US fed funds rate this year, yields of emerging market (EM) local currency bond have declined by 80 basis points and outperformed the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond by 60 basis points. In fact, the index yield ( ...

It’s not the time to buy an emerging market debt index! It’s alpha’s turn now

Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a 50 basis points increase in the US fed funds rate this year, yields of emerging market (EM) local currency bond have declined by 80 basis points and outperformed the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond by 60 basis points. In fact, the index yield ( ...

It’s not the time to buy an emerging market debt index! It’s alpha’s turn now

Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a 50bp increase in the US fed funds rate this year, yields of emerging market bonds in local currency have declined by 80bp and outperformed the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond by 60bp. In fact, the index yield (JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Eme ...

Central Banks are Preparing for the Next Crash

“Favourable global economic prospects, particularly strong momentum in the euro area and in emerging markets led by China and India, continue to serve as a strong foundation for global financial stability.” This statement opened the International Monetary Fund’s April 2007 Global Financial St ...

US Earnings and BoC Decision Eyed on Wednesday

US Futures Flat as 10% of S&P 500 Prepares to Release Earnings US futures are mixed ahead of the open on Wednesday, a day after only the Dow managed to make fresh record highs while the others made only marginal gains. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq failed to replicate the moves in the Dow on Tues ...