Forex and the Economy

Week Ahead – Phase-one trade deal and UK election aftermath

The US dollar remains at a critical juncture as Fed policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future and as we start to see an economic rebound come out of Europe. The world’s largest and strongest economy is likely to start to see economic growth slow in the fourth quarter, further cementing t ...

Silver and the Miners Wait Patiently for Gold - David Brady (13/12/2019)

December 13,2019 The Fed surpasses expectations for more QE to address potential liquidity issues in the repo market around year-end. This means interbank funding issues are getting worse, requiring ever more stimulus. Meanwhile, Trump announces a phase one trade deal with China “in principle”, ...

US Open – Brexit is Coming, Trade Progress, Dollar tumbles, Oil rises, Gold’s resilience

Last night was a historic night for Boris Johnson as his Conservative Party delivered a crushing election victory over Labour.  Johnson’s party tore down the “Red Wall”, just like Viserion the Ice Dragon did at the end of season 7 in Game of Thrones.  A ton of uncertainty has been lifted f ...

It’s Brexit, stupid

It’s Brexit, stupid It’s been a long night but not necessarily one of too many surprises, with results closely reflecting what the exit polls told us at 10pm on Thursday. If that wasn’t clear, just take a look at the pound which was tucked up in bed shortly after the exit poll while the rest ...

Asia Midday Update. A Crushing Win UK Conservatives

UK Election Labour’s Corbyn concedes, Liberal’s Swinson loses her seat, SNP massive gains North of the border. Tories on track for a crushing win in today’s election with 200 of 650 seats left to declare. GBP rallied two per cent overnight but is unchanged in Asia at 1.3470, next resistance ...

Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-12-13

Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-12-13 Wall Street higher on trade deal US indices have hit fresh record highs after US President Trump signed off on the Phase 1 trade deal with China. The pound soars as the UK Conservative party look set to win the general election with a much greater than anticipat ...

Trade War Update: Phase-one deal expectations are sky high; Stocks, Yuan and Treasury yields rally

The Santa rally is coming early as President Trump signaled US negotiators are getting very close to a big deal with China.  Trump’s tweet was more optimistic than usual as he indicated that that the Chinese are not alone in wanting a deal.  Almost a half hour later the Wall Street Journal rep ...

Central Bank Digital Currencies: 4 Questions and Answers

By Tobias Adrian and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) is a complex and multidisciplinary topic requiring active analysis and debate. It raises questions related to monetary policy, central banking operations, and payment systems—as well as financial stability and ...

US Open – Weak US data, Lagarde’s ECB debut, Turkey’s Big Rate Cut, Oil, Gold rises

US stocks are slightly softer after softer PPI and jobless claims data suggest some weakness is creeping into the US economy, shrugging off yesterday’s  Fed meeting that signaled rates are on hold for the foreseeable future.  Powell’s presser had a dovish tone and the dollar could remain vul ...

Fed Recap – Stocks rise and dollar tanks as rates are going nowhere anytime soon and after Powell’s dovish presser, Oil slumps, Gold’s back

The Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of the year for the most part went as expected with a slightly dovish tone after policymakers kept rates unchanged and forecasted no changes throughout 2020.  The Fed’s dot plots show a strong consensus for rates to remain on hold and for the next mov ...