Forex and the Economy

Asia Morning: Asia Smells A Rat

With Chinese New Year starting tomorrow, bringing in the year of the rat, Asia clearly smells one with regional markets ignoring a positive overnight session on Wall Street and marking equities sharply lower today. The coronavirus outbreak in China is obviously the culprit. The fall-out of SARS in ...

Asia Morning: Coronavirus, an unwelcome America First development

Prepared by Jeff Halley, Senior Market Analyst The United States reported its first case of the Wuhan coronavirus overnight, an America First development that neither President Trump, nor US financial markets wanted. With Asia on the back foot over the coronavirus implications yesterday, SARS stil ...

US Open – Davos, Wuhan Virus pressures stocks and yields, Dax touches record high, Oil’s supply problem, Gold’s range, Bitcoin eases after CBDC think tank formed

A very busy week in Davos was kicked off by President Trump’s opening remarks that reiterated his “America First” motto, while making some positive strokes to this year’s overall green theme. President Trump’s impeachment is also beginning today in what will likely deliver a ton of headl ...

European open – Trump, Davos, UK jobs, gold, oil

Trump Davos Speech Eyed Stocks are lower across Europe on Tuesday as the week gets properly underway with the return of the US after the bank holiday and start of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon The event in Davos is what we’re going to see splashed across ...

Asia Catches A SARS 2.0 Cold

Memories of the SARS outbreak of 2002/2003 have returned to haunt Asia this morning. Stock markets are down across the region as news emerges that the as yet un-named SARS-like virus originating in Wuhan in China has killed four people and has been confirmed as transmissible from human to human. ...

European Update – Davos, Earnings, BoE, Gold, Oil

Davos and Earnings in Focus It’s been a slow start to an otherwise frenetic week, with the bank holiday in the US only adding to the light volumes and absent news flow. Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon This comes following a rather eventful start to the year, since which markets have largely ...

Hong Kong shares slide after weekend violence

  Index snaps a two-day streak In an otherwise rather dull Asian morning session today, the biggest mover was the HongKong33 index which struggled after another flare-up at protests during the weekend. While most other indices benefitted from the latest move on Wall Street to record levels, the l ...

Asia Morning: Cake By The Ocean

US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day, and this will likely take the edge of activity in Asian markets as the week starts. That didn’t stop Wall Street setting another set of record highs following robust manufacturing and housing data along with the JOLTS Jobs Openings. That do ...

Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Strategy I: Here Comes Another Earnings Season. First, the bad news: During the 1/9 week, industry analysts estimated that S&P 500 earnings per share fell 1.7% y/y in Q4-2019 (Fig. 1). They currently estimate that earnings rose just 1.1% last year (Fig. 2). That was mostly because the comparison w ...

The Week Ahead – BOJ, BOC, and ECB to keep rates on hold as markets focus on global PMI readings and earnings

The debates on how much of an impact the Phase One trade deal will have on the global outlook will continue as market concerns fall on the Davos forum, central bank rate decisions and earnings season.  The upcoming week is shortened since US equity and bond markets will be closed on Monday for th ...