Fed

Wednesday: Industrial Produciton, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Still Working on That CeilingMortgage rates didn't move much today. Most lenders were just slightly lower/better this morning, but mid-day market weakness prompted several of them to reissue higher rates. In the bigger picture, however, the ...

Firming Core CPI Inflation Points to Rise in 2018

U.S. headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 0.1% in December, bringing the year-over-year figure to 2.1% for 2017. While this level is in line with what we saw in 2016, the apparent stability masks a roller coaster over the year for core CPI – the component excluding energy and food p ...

Update: Predicting the Next Recession

CR January 2018 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession". I repeated the post in January 2015 (and in the summer of 2015, in January 2016, in August 2016, and in April 2017) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out in force - arguing ...

Speculating Our Way to Prosperity - Keith Weiner (16/01/2018)

January 16, 2018 We have been discussing the consumption of capital. Last week, for example, we concluded with: “We see people eating more of the seed corn.” Morally, socialism is the enslavement of man to man. If you create something, they want not just to take it from you, but to render y ...

The Heavy Hand of Government Regulation Looms Over Cryptocurrencies - Nathan McDonald (16/01/2018)

January 16, 2018 Over the past couple of days, Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies enjoyed a much-needed rally. Confidence was building once again and things were appearing to get back on track. The bull market was back on! That is, until government officials and central banksters had their say. ...

Q4 GDP Forecasts

The advance estimate of Q4 GDP will be released on Friday, January 26th.Here are a few estimates, from Merrill Lynch:The strength of the retail sales report [last Friday] lifted our 4Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to 2.8% qoq saar.emphasis added From the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model forecas ...

NY Fed: "Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip"

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity continued to expand strongly. The general business conditions index was little changed at 17.7. ... The index for number of employees fell nineteen points to 3.8, a level suggesti ...

Monday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Jan 14, 2018Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 18.6, up from 18.0.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 7, and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value).Oil ...

Tech Talk for Monday January 15th 2018

Combining Seasonal and Technical Analysis Using StockCharts Thanks to Greg Schnell and StockCharts for the opportunity to give this presentation on Saturday to all StockCharts subscribers. Greg’s comments fit nicely with the presentation on seasonality. Following is a link: http://stockcharts.com ...

Investing = rational thinking + emotion (book excerpt and review)

    SPEEDREADER Book: Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought Author: Andrew W. Lo Publisher: Princeton University Press https://www.amazon.ca/Adaptive-Markets-Financial-Evolution-Thought/dp/0691135142 Price: Hardcover $42.28, Kindle $33.99 WHO IT’S FOR: Anyone interested ...