Fed

Schedule for Week of December 15, 2019

The key economic reports this week are November Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.----- ...

Week Ahead – Phase-one trade deal and UK election aftermath

The US dollar remains at a critical juncture as Fed policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future and as we start to see an economic rebound come out of Europe. The world’s largest and strongest economy is likely to start to see economic growth slow in the fourth quarter, further cementing t ...

Federal Reserve Appears Confident in U.S. Economy's Soft Landing

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view? ...

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch The retail sales data nudged 3Q and 4Q GDP tracking a tenth lower to 2.1% and 1.5% qoq saar. [Dec 13 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following today’s data, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar). [Dec 13 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowca ...

Silver and the Miners Wait Patiently for Gold - David Brady (13/12/2019)

December 13,2019 The Fed surpasses expectations for more QE to address potential liquidity issues in the repo market around year-end. This means interbank funding issues are getting worse, requiring ever more stimulus. Meanwhile, Trump announces a phase one trade deal with China “in principle”, ...

The Fed’s Recent “Not QE” Is “Not Working” and People Are Starting to Notice - Nathan McDonald (13/12/2019)

December 13, 2019 The alarm bells are ringing all across the financial industry, and the mainstream media is finally starting to take notice of just how big a mess the repo markets truly are. The Federal Reserve have been tossing money at the repo markets since riding in on their white horses in ...

Lessons Learned From The Recent Recession Scare

Earlier this year a number of economic analysts were convinced that a US recession was imminent. So far, however, the economy has continued to expand, albeit at a slowing pace as the year unfolded. The breathless warnings have, once again, come to naught — par for the course in recent years. The ...

US Open – Brexit is Coming, Trade Progress, Dollar tumbles, Oil rises, Gold’s resilience

Last night was a historic night for Boris Johnson as his Conservative Party delivered a crushing election victory over Labour.  Johnson’s party tore down the “Red Wall”, just like Viserion the Ice Dragon did at the end of season 7 in Game of Thrones.  A ton of uncertainty has been lifted f ...

Macro Briefing | 13 December 2019

Trump OKs partial trade deal with China: WSJ China’s foreign ministry backs trade deal… sort of: SCMP Vote on impeachment articles abruptly postponed: The Hill UK’s Johnson wins big majority, lifting odds for Brexit: BBC Will the Fed starting cutting rates again in 2020? CNN Today’s US reta ...

Fed Holds Rates Steady, as Expected

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected; while signaling rates would stay in their current range through next year. ...