Fed

FOMC Preview

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting.A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could be in the press conference, or in t ...

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, September 14

With TF 18 Comments | 7 Likes The word of the day is "neutral". You're going to hear it a lot in this podcast and you're going to hear it a lot next week, not only here at TFMR but from CGP, his FOMC and the MSM. So, after a general discussion of how and why we've gotten to this point, we disc ...

Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019

The key economic reports this week are August Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.The FOMC is expected to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bps on Wednesday, and the Fed's Q2 Flow ...

The Fed’s Dilemma, Draghi’s Parting Gift, Mortgage Rate Meltdown

Fed is set to ease, ECB eases and mortgage refinancing takes off. ...

"Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse"

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to WorseMortgage rates were already having their worst week since 2016 as of yesterday afternoon. Rather than help to heal some of the damage, today's bond market momentum only made things worse. Whether we're looking at 10 ...

Trade Optimism and Easy Money Set to Drive Stocks to Fresh Record Highs

The bull story for the rest of the year remains in place as trade war angst ebbs, the stimulative effect from lower rates kicks in, the US consumer remains resilient and credit markets show money is still available. The S&P 500 could rally another 3-5% as long as we don’t see a policy mistake by ...

USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower on Record High Household Debt

The Canadian dollar fell 0.45 percent on Friday and will finish 0.78 pecan lower against the US dollar. Canadian households have a 174.1 percent debt to income ratio in 2019 Q2. Rating agencies have already downgraded some of the banks as the risk of higher defaults rises as consumers take on more ...

OANDA Market Insights – Episode 82 (Podcast)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the week’s business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart. This week they discuss the ECB stimulus package, Brexit, the trade war and next week’s interest rate decisions from the Fed, BoE and BoJ. ...

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. [Sept 13 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). [Sept 13 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff ...

Week ahead – Central banks the only game in town

Brexit, Fed and trade war remain in focus For many months now, all of the attention has been on the trade war, Brexit and central bank easing. Next week is going to be no different as the UK Supreme Court rules on Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament, talks continue ahead of a meeting betwee ...