Fed

Stall Speed, Flattening Yield Curve, and the Longest Expansion

Data for Q1-2018 real GDP will be released on Friday, April 27. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts 2.0% q/q (saar) based on data available through April 17. That would put the y/y rate at 2.8%. I prefer the y/y metric because it solves the annoying “residual” seasonality problem that h ...

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in March

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. In the past month, the indexes increased i ...

Chemical Activity Barometer "Eases" in April

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Eases Following Six Consecutive Monthly Gains; Trends Suggest Growth into Early 2019The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by t ...

Dollar Yields to Higher Rates

Wednesday April 25: Five the markets are talking about With U.S Treasury yields backing up, fixed income dealers are pricing in the possibility that there will be four Fed rate hikes this year and not the three they signaled in March. Given U.S economic growth and signs that domestic inflation could ...

Macro Briefing: 25 April 2018

Western allies press Trump to maintain nuclear deal with Iran: Reuters US intelligence monitors Iranian cargo shipments into Syria: CNN A trade war is a major risk for China’s debt-ridden economy: CNBC Federal judge orders gov’t must accept new DACA immigration applications: WaPo Unification of ...

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in FebruaryIt has been eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 8.2% above the prev ...

Slower US GDP Growth Expected In Friday’s First-Quarter Report

The pace of US economic output is set to soften in the government’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter that’s scheduled for release at the end of this week (Apr. 27), according to several estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The projection for Friday’s update puts the econo ...

Macro Briefing: 24 April 2018

Iran issues warning as French President Macron meets Trump: WaPo Senate panel endorses Pompeo for Secretary of State: The Hill Will 3% yield on 10-year Treasury reshape investing landscape? Bloomberg Brent oil above $75 for first time since 2014: MarketWatch US existing home sales up more than expe ...

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: NOW Mortgage Rates Are at 4-Year HighsMortgage rates moved markedly higher today, officially leaving them at new 4-year highs. ...The average lender is quoting very well-qualified borrowers with huge downpayments something north of 4.5% on conventional 30y ...

The Fed Policy Outlook

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report the advance estimate of 1Q18 GDP growth on April 27. These figures will be revised, but the underlying story is not expected to change much. Growth was likely moderate, not horrible, but far short of the lofty expectations that some had put forth at the st ...