Fed

EUR/USD – Euro yawns as German consumer confidence beats estimate

EUR/USD is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1363, down 0.04% on the day. On the release front, Germany releases ZEW Consumer Sentiment remains weak, but improved to -15.5 points. This was better than the estimate of -18.8 points. Eurozone ZEW Econo ...

The time Jack Bogle set me straight

My colleague Nick accidentally came across this and I had forgotten all about it. But it’s TIMELESS! I’m so excited this exists… It’s August 2013 and the S&P 500 has just been completely rattled by the sell off in bonds due to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s hint about the tapering off of QE stimu ...

Oil Rises Despite Weak Chinese GDP Data

Oil prices edged up on Monday, reversing earlier losses, as investors shrugged off data that confirmed China’s slowing economy and instead latched on to positive supply-side drivers for the market. Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were up 12 cents at $62.82 a barrel by 12:27 p.m. EST (1727 GMT), ...

Macro Briefing: 21 January 2019

China’s economic growth decelerated to 28-year low in 2018: CNBCIsrael attacked Iranian forces in Syria: NBCIs the Fed the source of this year’s rebound in stocks? NY TimesSenate GOP leader to introduce bill this week to reopen gov’t: PoliticoTrump-Pelosi battle rages on over gov’t shutdown ...

Risk appetite to be tested on geopolitical concerns

Monday January 21: Five things the markets are talking about It’s expected to be an interesting holiday-shortened week for capital markets. Last night we had Chinese Q4 GDP data, where the world’s second-largest economy grew +6.6% in 2018, the slowest annual pace in nearly 30-years. Today it ...

Gold Stocks Remain in a Downtrend

    Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market. Gold stocks have been in a rally. That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday. Take a look at the charts of any gold sto ...

Schedule for Week of January 20th

Special Note on Government Shutdown: If the Government shutdown continues, then some additional releases will be delayed. For example, this coming week, the new home sales and durable goods reports will not be released if the government remains shutdown - and probably delayed even if the government ...

Strong US Data, Trade Solace, & Consistent Fed Speak Drive Strong Dollar and Risk Narrative

The US dollar rally continues to be supported by strong US data, accommodative comments from Fed officials, and a very strong US stock market.  This week also saw big shifts in interest rate probabilities, the market shifted from seeing the next move go from a cut to now favoring a rate hike.  Ne ...

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s

From Merrill Lynch: 4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [J ...

Stocks rally as hope mounts for U.S.-China trade deal

Stocks rallied Friday, with major indexes trading higher for a fourth session, on reports that stoked hopes for progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. Optimism over a potential bilateral deal helped to offset worries about the prolonged partial government shutdown and mixed corporate r ...